Things we know                                                                                              Red Wedding Foreshadowing Quotes

 

• The actual event planning of the Red Wedding was done by Lord Walder Frey, Ser Ryman Frey, Lord Roose Bolton, Lame Lothar Frey and Black Walder? This is based on what Merrett Frey tells us in the ASOS epilogue.

 

“The Red Wedding was my father's work, and Ryman's and Lord Bolton's. Lothar rigged the tents to collapse and put crossbowmen in the gallery with the musicians, Bastard Walder led the attack on the camps...” -ASOS Epilogue

 

• Frey and Bolton planned the Red Wedding while Tywin and Sybell, separately, planned the broken engagement.

 

Tywin seems to have been approached with a set of combined asks from a Frey/Bolton alliance. At least, he lists them together in ASOS Tyrion VI. Though Tywin may have had dealings with Frey and Bolton sooner, even individually, this list is presented as payment for the Red Wedding. Payment includes Riverrun for Emmon and the marriages of Lancel, Daven and Joy to Freys. It also includes Roose Bolton to be named warden of the north and given “Arya Stark” (Jeyne Poole) to be wed to Ramsay.

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My current understanding of events

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• When Lord Walder proposed his second son for Genna Lannister, it was with the understanding the Lannisters would one day remove the Tullys from power and claim Riverrun. Lord Hoster feared Tywin would move if his illness was known of. Littlefinger likely learned of Tully's fears during his time as ward and so named the Lannisters to Catelyn in the Lysafinger letter and when consulted about the catspaw blade to provide Tywin a pretext to lay siege to Riverrun, which Tywin immediately did. It seems to me Lord Frey proposed his red wedding massacre to Tywin as a way to try for Riverrun while he yet lived.

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• After the Green Fork, when four Frey hostages had been taken (after giving themselves up to open negotiations?) Arya sees two Freys bring a chest of gold to Tywin at Harrenhal. This is presumably when Lord Walder Frey returned to the crown, though he may not have had plans to execute Robb at this point. If Lord Walder did have a specific treachery in mind to betray Robb, it might even have been to take him hostage, as Edmure was, when he wed Frey as promised.

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• Lord Eddard Stark was executed by Joffrey, surprising Tywin, who may have been told of Varys's plan to pardon Ned to the Night's Watch. Since Ned would have instructed his son to go home, it would have been sweet for Tywin to see Jaime just released and the north leave in shame. With Ned dead, however, Tywin likely decided to kill Robb for humiliating him on the Green Fork by not even being there and then taking Jaime hostage and restoring Riverrun to Tully. 

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• Roose Bolton did hope to see the northern armies not return and proposed some betrayal to Lord Walder, sealing the deal by marrying Fat Walda. 

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• Unrelatedly, Lady Sybell Westerling saw she had small choice but to set Robb up for a trap. Her husband was Robb's captive and it's likely the Cragg was stripped of fighting men when their lord joined Tywin's armies. The Cragg would fall. Sybell wrote to Tywin asking permission to trap Robb into marrying her daughter. He agreed, on the condition she not permit a pregnancy. Tywin smiled, knowing Robb's marrying Jeyne would provide Frey the pretext to betray him for the crown as promised. That Black Walder was first over the wall at The Cragg suggests Tywin told Frey of Sybell's plan. 

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• The rest was execution. It seems Roose Bolton promised to put a sword through Robb's chest himself but then not only had his decoy do it, but told Lord Walder at the wedding feast that Big And Little Walder were hostages of his bastard and that their days of friendship were over.

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• Jaime then succeeded at taking Riverrun from the Blackfish and gave it to Emmon and Genna.

 

Loose Timeline

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Early Setup

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Predispositions of Frey and Bolton: Lord  Walder Frey told Catlyn he'd rather betray Tully for the crown (presumably for Riverrun, given Emmon's marriage to Genna). Bolton was always going to make a power grab on the north, should the opportunity present. I believe Bolton is the instigator of the Red Wedding, to massacre the northern armies, suggesting it to Lord Walder Frey and sealing it with his wedding Walda.

 

Ned's Execution and Robb's mission west: Motivated to bloody Tywin to avenge themselves for their dead, Robb's northern armies go further south instead of returning north. Since Theon is freed as envoy to Balon in service to Robb's mission in the west, the northern armies' absence incentivizes Theon to attempt to take Winterfell. 

 

Shift in the balance of power Late ACOK: Robb loses Winterfell and Tywin allies with the Tyrells, winning on the Blackwater. 

 

News of Bran and Rickon's deaths: Though false, this news will play a role in Jeyne's seduction of Robb and Catelyn's attempt to trade Jaime for her girls.

 

Tywin negotiates Westerling betrayal: According to her talk with Jaime in AFFC Jaime VII, Tywin instructed Sybell to ensure Jeyne would not conceive but did not warn her against attending weddings at the Twins. That Tywin promised Lady Sybell "Joy" suggests she overasked in her desire for advantageous marriages, since Joy is a bastard. It may be Tywin hoped Lady Sybell would attend the red wedding, reducing or even removing their agreed on payment.

 

Broken Engagement Announced and Bolton betrays Robb in ACOK Arya X

New reaches Harrenhal that the Freys have been dishonored and Elmar's engagement to Arya is broken.

Bolton sends Tallhart and Glover to be slaughtered in Duskendale on orders fraudulently Robb's. This order of Bolton's contributes to the sense that he intended the northern armies not return.

 

Catelyn release of Jaime (ACOK Catelyn VII). Edmure announces the Kingslayer has escaped (ASOS Catelyn I): This removes any friction Tywin might have felt about green lighting a massacre that involved the Tullys.

 

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Planning Underway

 

ACOK Catelyn IX: When Catelyn negotiates with Walder Frey for Robb's crossing, he suggests he was late to Riverrun because waiting for Lord Tywin to ask him to betray Tully for the crown. (Lord Walder may have been eager for this, given Riverrun was to be taken from Tully, permanently, and the prediction this would happen likely motivated Lord Walder to propose Emmon for Genna, a move calculated to give Riverrun to Frey.)

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ACOK Arya VII: Two Freys arrive at Harrenhal with a chest of gold and ransom the captive Freys from Tywin, suggesting this is when Frey returned to the crown. It may even be that the  ransomed men allowed themselves to be taken to create the pretext for Lord Walder to approach Tywin to deal.

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ASOS Tyrion I: Tywin tells Tyrion some battles are won with quills.

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ASOS Catelyn II: It's revealed Robb wed Jeyne Westerling. Catelyn gets the idea to offer Edmure to Frey so Robb can return north to retake Winterfell

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ASOS Tyrion III: Tyrion is stunned the Westerlings would defy Tywin. Tywin smiles.

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ASOS Catelyn III: Tion's death at the hands of Karstark men by multiple cuts & stabbings. Walder Frey has not responded to Robb's new offer.

 

Tywin green lights a Frey/Bolton massacre proposal and associated demands of Riverrun, etc. (Any way to tell if this happens before or after the events of ASOS Catelyn III?) In ASOS Jaime V, Bolton says Arya Stark has been found and is no longer engaged to Elmar Frey. Since part of his price was Arya for Ramsay, does this suggest Tywin has greenlit the plan before ASOS Jaime V?

 

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Plan In Motion

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ASOS Catelyn IV: Lothar Frey arrives at Riverrun to present alliance terms, including the condition Robb be present at Edmure's wedding and that it happen immediately. News Winterfell has burned comes via the warded Walders, now safe with Ramsay.

 

ASOS Jaime VI: Roose asks Jaime “You will give my warm regards to your father?” “So long as you give mine to Robb Stark.” “That I shall.”

 

ASOS Catelyn V: The wedding party leaves Riverrun. A detour makes Catelyn worry Frey will see their late arrival as a deliberate insult. Robb predicts Bolton will arrive before they do, hoping he got across the Trident before the rains began.

 

ASOS Catelyn VI: Bolton lies to Robb about Duskendale, citing Glover's grief, and about his role in Norrey, Locke, Burley and Manderly men being slaughtered by Lannisters as he crossed the Trident.

 

ASOS Catelyn VII: THE RED WEDDING The musicians are too many and not gifted. Grey Wind barred from castle. Black Walder suspiciously well behaved. Olyvar away on duty. Ryman sweating. Fat Walda brags of Bolton choosing her over Fair Walda. Roose Bolton's toast reminds he has Big & Little Walder. Roslin is stiff with terror at the call to bedding and Catelyn wonders. Trap springs just after Dacey Mormont notices Edwyn's mail. The musicians begin to play “The Rains of Castamere.” Catelyn takes Jingelbell hostage and bargains for Robb's life. Lord Walder turns her down. Robb is killed. Catelyn's throat is slit by either Ryman or Black Walder.

 

ASOS Tyrion VI: Letter from the Twins refers to a “pair of wolf skins.” Tyrion asks Tywin how long he and Walder Frey had been plotting. Tywin won't disclose. Tywin says the blood is on Frey's hands, not his, but that Frey “would never have dared such a thing without promise of protection.”

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Tywin pays Bolton and the Westerlings

 

ASOS Jaime IX: Tommen legitimizes Ramsay Bolton and names Roose warden of the north. He raises Ser Rolph Spicer to lord, granting him castle Castamere, pardoning Lord Gawen Westerling, his lady wife and daughter, Jeyne. Jaime sees Jeyne Poole dressed as Arya Stark being sent to Bolton with the documents.

 

ASOS Epilogue: Merrett Frey says “The Red Wedding was my father's work, and Ryman's and Lord Bolton's. Lothar rigged the tents to collapse and put crossbowmen in the gallery with the musicians, Bastard Walder led the attack on the camps...” Merrett was tasked to get the Greatjon drunk. “It was vengeance, we had a right to our vengeance. It was war.” Merrett is hung by the Brotherhood Without Banners at the order of Lady Stoneheart.

 

Tywin pays Frey

AFFC Jaime VI: Genna complains Tywin should have given her Darry and Kevan Riverrun. Except, it wasn't Tywin's call. Walder Frey required Riverrun for Emmon as part of his price. Lancel wed Amerei much earlier.

 

AFFC Jaime VII: Sybell Westerling tells Jaime she made sure Jeyne wouldn't conceive, per Tywin's orders. Sybelle says she was promised worthy marriages for Jeyne and her younger sister. It is clear Sybell did not know about the Red Wedding because she allowed Raynald to attend. He was to be engaged to Joy, who Jaime identifies as Gerion's natural daughter.

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Review of Setup and Foreshadowing

 

A Game of Thrones

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32 Tyrion IV: The Freys do not stand for Catelyn and express irritation Hoster did not attend Lord Walder's recent wedding

 

54 Bran VI: Robb's bannermen suggest marriages for him, one expected to seduce him to wed him

 

56 Catelyn VIII: Bolton selected to command foot

 

60 Catelyn IX: FREY/STARK ALLEGIANCE FORGED

Catelyn negotiates with Walder Frey for Robb's crossing

 

63 Tyrion VIII: Four Freys are taken captive by the Lannisters at the Green Fork

 

 

A Clash of Kings

 

5 Bran I: Lord of the Crossing rules explained

 

8 Catelyn I: Robb asks Catelyn to go to the Twins to advise on a bride

 

24 Jon III: Gilly explains guest right

 

29 Bran IV: Hornwood says she's written to Roose Bolton at the Twins

 

31 Arya VII: A Frey/Lannister allegiance was formed at or before this time

Two Freys arrive at Harrenhal with a chest of gold and ransom the captive Freys

 

My assumption is that Tywin would only agree to ransom the captives within the context of pledging fealty. I'm basing this on the letter Wyman Manderly received offering Wylis on condition.

 

A Bolton/Hoat allegiance may have been forged at or before this time

The Bloody Mummers gossip that Roose Bolton is at the ruby ford. We later learn that is where Bolton proposed Hoat betray Tywin.

 

40 Catelyn V: BOLTON/FREY ALLEGIANCE FORGED at Roose's wedding to Fat Walda, probably before Frey/Lannister allegiance forged

Edmure mentions Bolton wed Frey

Speculation: Bolton wed Fat Walda before reported at ruby ford in 31 Arya VII

 

46 Catelyn VI: Bolton writes to Edmure he's crossed the Trident and marches on Harrenhal as commanded

 

47 Bran VI: Theon takes Winterfell

 

48 Arya IX: Roose takes Harrenhal by Weasle soup

 

49 Daenerys IV: Dany's vision in the House of Undying

 

The bodies Theon hangs above the gates are presented as Bran & Rickon

 

56 Catelyn VII: Robb has taken the Cragg and is expected home soon

 

57 Theon V: Theon's nightmare

 

58-53 The Blackwater: The political situation after the Blackwater is often sited as creating the incentive for Frey to return to the crown and Bolton to bleed the north and ensure Robb not return.

 

65 Arya X: FREY/STARK ALLEGIANCE BROKEN, BOLTON SABOTAGING STARK

Letter from Lord Walder breaks Elmar's engagement. Freys at Harrenhal unaware of Frey/Lannister allegiance. Hoat a lord to be awarded Harrenhal. Roose sends Tallhart and Glover to Duskendale calling these Robb's orders.

 

 

A Storm of Swords

 

2 Jaime I: Jaime is surprised there would be northmen in their path, since Tywin defeated Bolton on the Greek Fork. Cleos informs Jaime Bolton took Harrenhal from Lorch after Tywin marched against the fords.

 

3 Catelyn I: WESTERLING/STARK ALLEGIANCE FORGED around this time

News Robb injured, remains at Cragg to heal.

 

8 Jon I: Mance Rayder tells Jon he's protected by guest right that night

 

5 Tyrion I: RED WEDDING PLANNED at or before this time

Tywin tells Tyrion some battles are won with quills

 

11 Davos II: Patchface's song

 

15 Catelyn II: Catelyn gets the idea to offer Edmure to Frey so Robb can return north to retake Winterfell

 

20 Tyrion III: Tywin informs Tyrion he's to wed Sansa. Tyrion is stunned the Westerlings would defy Tywin. Tywin smiles.

 

21 Catelyn III: Tion's death by multiple cuts & stabbings. Walder Frey has not responded to Robb's new offer.

 

22 Jaime III: The Bloody Mummers beat Brienne despite her claim to serve Robb. Hoat takes Jaime's hand as a message to Tywin.

 

24 Daenerys II: Dany notes that “may” is a slippery word in any language

 

25 Bran II: In the story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, the little crannogman has to sneak past the Twins at night and one of the bullying squires was of the twin towers

 

29 Sansa III: Sansa is aware of being wed for her claim to Winterfell

 

32 Jaime IV: Aenys Frey tells Brienne Robb betrayed the Freys

 

33 Tyrion IV: Tywin says Sansa will be heir to Winterfell after Robb is dead

 

34 Samwell II: Mormont cries out at the breaking of guest right

 

36 Catelyn IV: RED WEDDING PLAN UNDERWAY

Lothar Frey presents alliance terms, including the condition Robb be present at Edmure's wedding and that it happen immediately.

Reminders of Bolton's betrayal:

Robb is bewildered Glover & Tallhart went to Duskendale

News Winterfell has burned comes via the warded Walders, now safe with Ramsay

 

Catelyn begs Robb to bend the knee to the Lannisters. Robb says “I am not dead yet, Mother.” Catelyn feels dread.

 

37 Davos IV: Melisandre's leech burning names Robb as well as Joffrey & Balon.

 

38 Jaime V: Jaime asks “How does Lord Walder relish dining on trout in place of wolf?”

Bolton wed Fat Walda for her weight in silver, suggesting Lord Walder proposed to Bolton?

Bolton brings up guest right and Jaime says he's a captive, so it doesn't apply.

Bolton says Arya Stark has been found and is no longer engaged to Elmar Frey.

 

40 Arya VII: Tom o' Sevens sings “The Rains of Castamere” in a medley of rain songs.

 

41 Bran III: “The tower stood upon an island, its twin reflected on the still blue waters.”

 

44 Arya VIII: The ghost of High Heart says to take Arya to the Twins instead of Riverrun because of the wedding. Shares red wedding dreams.

 

45 Jaime VI: Bolton asks Jaime “You will give my warm regards to your father?” “So long as you give mine to Robb Stark.” “That I shall.”

 

46 Catelyn V: A detour makes Catelyn worry Frey will see their late arrival as a deliberate insult. Robb predicts Bolton will arrive before they do, hoping he got across the Trident before the rains began.

 

48 Arya IX: The Hound reveals to Arya that they're on their way to the Twins to ransom at her uncle's “bloody wedding.”

 

50 Catelyn VI: Bolton lies to Robb about Duskendale, citing Glover's grief, and about his role in Norrey, Locke, Burley and Manderly men being slaughtered by Lannisters as he crossed the Trident. Jinglebell is present.

 

51 Arya X: The music in the castles is reminiscent of the Ghost at High Heart's dream. The Green Fork is described as “growling like a lion in its den.”

 

52 Catelyn VII: THE RED WEDDING The musicians are too many and not gifted. Grey Wind barred from castle. Black Walder suspiciously well behaved. Olyvar away on duty. Ryman sweating. Fat Walda brags of Bolton choosing her over Fair Walda. Roose Bolton's toast reminds he has Big & Little Walder. Roslin is stiff with terror at the call to bedding and Catelyn wonders. Trap springs just after Dacey Mormont notices Edwyn's mail. The musicians begin to play “The Rains of Castamere.” Catelyn takes Jingelbell hostage and bargains for Robb's life. Lord Walder turns her down.

 

Robb is killed

Catelyn's throat is slit by either Ryman or Black Walder.

 

53 Arya XI:

 

54 Tyrion VI: Letter from the Twins refers to a “pair of wolf skins.” Tyrion asks Tywin how long he and Walder Frey had been plotting. Tywin won't disclose. Guest right mentioned. Tywin says the blood is on Frey's hands, not his, but that Frey “would never have dared such a thing without promise of protection.”

 

As payment, Tywin has agreed to:

Riverrun for Ser Emmon Frey

marriages of Lancel and Daven to Frey girls

Joy to a Frey son (Did Tywin promise Joy to Sybell Westerling before or after this?)

Roose Bolton to be named warden of the north and given “Arya Stark” (Jeyne Poole) to be wed to Ramsay.

That Tywin lists Bolton's demands as Frey's suggests they were presented together by Lord Walder. Is this true/proveable?

 

Tywin explains to Tyrion that the north will go to him via his son by Sansa.

 

Why did Bolton ask for Arya instead of for Sansa? Was Sansa already wed to Tyrion, or was Bolton expecting Tywin's claim to Winterfell through Sansa to be something he'd eventually handle?

 

73 Jaime IX: Tommen legitimizes Ramsay Bolton and names Roose warden of the north. He raises Ser Rolph Spicer to lord, granting him castle Castamere, pardoning Lord Gawen Westerling, his lady wife and daughter, Jeyne. Jaime sees Jeyne Poole dressed as Arya Stark being sent to Bolton with the documents.

 

82 Epilogue: Merrett Frey knows Lame Lothar plotted the Red Wedding with Roose Bolton, including the idea to play “The Rains of Castamere.” He says “The Red Wedding was my father's work, and Ryman's and Lord Bolton's. Lothar rigged the tents to collapse and put crossbowmen in the gallery with the musicians, Bastard Walder led the attack on the camps...” Merrett was tasked to get the Greatjon drunk. “It was vengeance, we had a right to our vengeance. It was war.”

 

A Feast for Crows

 

39 Jaime VI: Genna complains Tywin should have given her Darry and Kevan Riverrun. Except, it wasn't Tywin's call. Walder Frey required Riverrun for Emmon as part of his price.

 

45 Jaime VII: Sybell Westerling tells Jaime she made sure Jeyne wouldn't conceive, per Tywin's orders. Sybelle says she was promised worthy marriages for Jeyne and her younger sister. It is clear Sybell did not know about the Red Wedding because she allowed Raynald to attend. He was to be engaged to Joy, who Jaime identifies as Gerion's natural daughter. (Tywin also promised Joy to Walder Frey).

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Red Wedding Foreshadowing Quotes