Tywin Died Before He Could Stiff Frey and Execute Him For the Red Wedding

There are many clues Lord Tywin Lannister meant not to pay Lord Walder Frey for the red wedding:

• Joy Hill: That a bastard was promised at all suggests Tywin intended Frey to feel stiffed regarding the portion of the payment fulfilled by her marriage to Frey. That Tywin later also promised Joy to Sybell Westerling suggests either that he knew he would not honor his debt to Frey even in the matter of Joy, or that he planned to stiff both Lord Walder and Lady Sybell. This could be a real possibility given that Reynald, who Sybell considered to be engaged to Joy, died at the red wedding since Tywin did not warn her. We learn of this in AFFC Jaime VII.

• The Westerlings were promised Castamere and pardoned. It may be the offer of Castamere was intended as a reference to the song, suggesting Tywin knew it would be played at the red wedding. An obvious counter-argument is that the paperwork was being drawn up, so I may be wrong.

"This is your royal pardon for Lord Gawen Westerling, his lady wife, and his daughter Jeyne, welcoming them back into the king's peace," Ser Kevan said. - A Storm of Swords - Jaime IX

"This grants Ser Rolph Spicer title to the castle Castamere and raises him to the rank of lord." Tommen scrawled his name. - A Storm of Swords - Jaime IX

• Genna explains that Tywin always opposed her marriage to Emmon, one likely predicated on the scheme that Riverrun would go to Genna after Lannister took it from Tully.

When Catelyn arrives at Riverrun, she learns Hoster is dying and that she was not told because Tywin would attack if he knew:

"You should have told me," she said. "You should have sent word as soon as you knew."

"He forbade it. He did not want his enemies to know that he was dying. With the realm so troubled, he feared that if the Lannisters suspected how frail he was …"

"… they might attack?" Catelyn finished, hard. It was your doing, yours, a voice whispered inside her. If you had not taken it upon yourself to seize the dwarf …- A Game of Thrones - Catelyn XI

It was obvious that Frey had a vested interest in Lannister.

"Some men take their oaths more seriously than others, Robb. And Lord Walder was always friendlier with Casterly Rock than my father would have liked. One of his sons is wed to Tywin Lannister's sister. - A Game of Thrones - Catelyn IX

Lord Walder even tells Catelyn:

"If Lord Tywin wants my help, he can bloody well ask for it." - A Game of Thrones - Catelyn IX

• Most likely, Tywin knew what Genna did not suspect: that the true purpose of Frey's overreach was to gain Riverrun. That Tywin has been wroth about this deal since childhood suggests he always intended to entirely oppose it.

"I was seven when Walder Frey persuaded my lord father to give my hand to Emm. His second son, not even his heir. Father was himself a thirdborn son, and younger children crave the approval of their elders. Frey sensed that weakness in him, and Father agreed for no better reason than to please him. My betrothal was announced at a feast with half the west in attendance. Ellyn Tarbeck laughed and the Red Lion went angry from the hall. The rest sat on their tongues. Only Tywin dared speak against the match. A boy of ten. Father turned as white as mare's milk, and Walder Frey was quivering." She smiled. "How could I not love him, after that? That is not to say that I approved of all he did, or much enjoyed the company of the man that he became . . . but every little girl needs a big brother to protect her. Tywin was big even when he was little." She gave a sigh. "Who will protect us now?" - A Feast for Crows - Jaime V

• Tywin gave Littlefinger the title Lord Paramount of the Trident, though Emmon Frey still expects to rule all the riverlands from Riverrun, once he occupies it.

Oh, gods be good. "You are not his overlord, ser. Read your parchment. You were granted Riverrun with its lands and incomes, no more. Petyr Baelish is the Lord Paramount of the Trident. Riverrun will be subject to the rule of Harrenhal."

That did not please Lord Emmon. "Harrenhal is a ruin, haunted and accursed," he objected, "and Baelish . . . the man is a coin counter, no proper lord, his birth . . ."

"If you are unhappy with the arrangements, go to King's Landing and take it up with my sweet sister." Cersei would devour Emmon Frey and pick her teeth with his bones, he did not doubt. That is, if she's not too busy fucking Osmund Kettleblack.

Lady Genna gave a snort. "There is no need to trouble Her Grace with such nonsense. Emm, why don't you step outside and have a breath of air?"

"A breath of air?"

"Or a good long piss, if you prefer. My nephew and I have family matters to discuss."

Lord Emmon flushed. "Yes, it is warm in here. I will wait outside, my lady. Ser." His lordship rolled up his parchment, sketched a bow toward Jaime, and tottered from the tent.

It was hard not to feel contemptuous of Emmon Frey. He had arrived at Casterly Rock in his fourteenth year to wed a lioness half his age. Tyrion used to say that Lord Tywin had given him a nervous belly for a wedding gift. Genna has played her part as well. Jaime remembered many a feast where Emmon sat poking at his food sullenly whilst his wife made ribald jests with whatever household knight had been seated to her left, their conversations punctuated by loud bursts of laughter. She gave Frey four sons, to be sure. At least she says they are his. No one in Casterly Rock had the courage to suggest otherwise, least of all Ser Emmon.

No sooner was he gone than his lady wife rolled her eyes. "My lord and master. What was your father thinking, to name him Lord of Riverrun?" - A Feast for Crows - Jaime V

• It seems suggested Tywin might have intended to punish Frey for the red wedding instead of paying him what was asked. Qyburn comprehends and Cersei quickly agrees that Lord Walder Frey is the perfect scapegoat, since the crown must punish someone.

"These sparrows are especially outspoken," warned Qyburn. "The Red Wedding was an affront to all the laws of gods and men, they say, and those who had a hand in it are damned."

Cersei was not slow to take his meaning. "Lord Walder must soon face the Father's judgment. He is very old. Let the sparrows spit upon his memory. It has nought to do with us."

"No," said Ser Harys. "No," said Lord Merryweather. "No one could think so," said Pycelle. Lord Gyles coughed.

"A little spittle on Lord Walder's tomb is not like to disturb the grave worms," Qyburn agreed, "but it would also be useful if someone were to be punished for the Red Wedding. A few Frey heads would do much to mollify the north."

"Lord Walder will never sacrifice his own," said Pycelle. - A Feast for Crows - Cersei IV

• Tywin may be in the habit of reneging on payments. Jaime expects Tywin to stiff Urswyck the Faithful for attempting to ransom his son back to him.

  
  

For half a heartbeat Urswyck considered the proposition. "King's Landing is a long way, and your father is there. Lord Tywin may resent us for selling Harrenhal to Lord Bolton."

He's cleverer than he looks. Jaime had been been looking forward to hanging the wretch while his pockets bulged with gold. "Leave me to deal with my father. I'll get you a royal pardon for any crimes you have committed. I'll get you a knighthood." - A Storm of Swords - Jaime III

• Tywin may have stiffed Vargo Hoat for sellsword services. That seems suggested by the ominous tone in which the Brave Companions spoke to Jaime as they ferried him to Vargo Hoat. It may be they had hoped to capture him for their captain so that Hoat could extract from Tywin payment that had not been made, necessitating their turn of cloak to Bolton. When he reaches Hoat Jaime thinks:

If he was turned once, he can be turned again. "Lord Vargo, you were foolish to leave my father's service, but it is not too late to make amends. He will pay well for me, you know it."

"Oh yeth," said Vargo Hoat. "Half the gold in Cathterly Rock, I thall have. But firth I mutht thend him a methage." He said something in his slithery goatish tongue. - A Storm of Swords - Jaime III

A deep intention to renege may be why "a Lannister always pays his debts" is only considered a saying while their offical words are "Hear us roar."

The Irony of Tywin's Outrage

There's a subtle drama in the background of Tywin's outrage at Tytos's agreement to wed Genna to Frey's second son. Assuming Frey intended to get Riverrun, what castle does Kevan get (or Tygett, or Gerion?) There are Lannister sons who deserve and may expect elevation, while Frey is upjumped and overreaching. Genna may be wed to the first son of a high house and in that way gain a castle for Lannister. The idea Genna's natural entitlement should be thrown away and Kevan denied Riverrun so Frey can grab it may be a fuller reason Tywin opposed the marriage so vehemently.

Yet, there is irony in the idea that Tytos accepted this arrangement for a different reason than Tywin understood at ten years old: If Riverrun's new lord is Frey in name instead of Lannister in name, it doesn't look as bad as it is that Lannister would just take Tully out for the castle and control of the riverlands, even if that seems inevitable. Frey offered to play fig leaf on the Lannister power grab of the riverlands in exchange for the inherent elevation of his house and appearance his son rules. It's a slightly subtler long game than Tywin may have comprehended, if he was not looking at the larger political situation. If Frey doesn't get to power grab so brazenly, why does Tywin think Lannister does?

Moving the seat of the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands to Harrenhal from Riverrun makes sense for a variety of reasons. Harrenhal is the larger and more central castle and it is easier to restore Tully entirely if the house's power isn't parted out. Since loyalty to Hoster is real enough in the riverlands that there is a Hoster Blackwood, it might only be a generation before whoever holds Riverrun is removed in favor of a local favorite or someone with the name Tully. That scenario could even include a full riverlands rebellion, Lord's Declarant style, or chatizement by the right king. For a Lannister power grab of the riverlands to work, it has to last.

Once upon a time on this sub, I was so foolish as to mock an now deleted account for using the phrase Cersei trully is Tywin with t1ts in order to, in my words, "call Tywin a titless Cersei." This assertion now seems deeply true.

For a more complete argument on how Lord Walder Frey conceived of the red wedding to gain Riverrun, see my Red Wedding Timeline

Synonyms for "not pay" from wordhippo.com.

The most appropriate is probably "fail to honour" or "dishonor."

default, backslide, backtrack, bilk, dodge, evade, rat, renege, welsh, levant, neglect, welch, defraud, dishonor^US, dishonour^UK, duck, fail, repudiate, shirk, skate, skip, stiff, swindle, back out, fall behind, fail to honour, fail to pay, duck out, go into arrears, leave town, let lapse, meet under arch, run out on, skip out on, put on the cuff, see in the alley, break your word