146 ASOS 3 Catelyn I: Dutiful Judgement

Catelyn feels ashamed when Ser Desmond Grell confronts her with his responsibility to address her crime, but he'd not confine her and is only required to present an appearance of order. Still, Catelyn feels her guilt and grief, sitting by her father's bedside, until Hoster wakes in a fit of conscience about having forced an abortion on Lysa that ruined her for motherhood. As she susses out what Hoster feels guilty about, Catelyn finds feeling like a prosecutor relieves her focus on her own guilt. But, when Edmure returns and writes to Bolton that Jaime has escaped, Catelyn understands that her plan to trade Jaime for the girls has been truly thwarted. Though she knows he's lord and she has no right, Catelyn orders Edmure from her presence.

Reveals

The chapter focuses on a variety of key reveals, culminating in the idea that lords do not have inherently better judgement than other men because as prone to emotional judgements which have monstrous results. That Catelyn sees no warning in Hoster's crisis of conscience on his death bed suggests that Catelyn will live to regret decisions she's making now.

Catelyn's motive in freeing Jaime was not to protect her girls

In an earlier chapter, she'd noted Jaime's near escape endangered them, as measures to retake him might have killed him. She admits she knew Riverrun would send chase and is not surprised to hear that Ryger has been instructed to bring Jaime back alive, or to bring back his head. This reflects back on Theon's claiming to have killed Bran & Rickon for escaping, making it seem more normal. But, if Catelyn wasn't trying to free her girls, what was she trying to do? The implication, through her confession to imprisoning herself in Hoster's chambers to comfort herself, is that Catelyn freed Jaime because she wanted her girls to make herself feel better, even if she endangered them.

Similarly, Edmure endangers Jaime by describing him as escaped. Though he describes his role, assigned by Robb, as Jaime's protector, he commands Bolton to open a manhunt instead of a clandestine watch. Edmure means to defy Catelyn by denying her the pretend authority to have sent Jaime in a hostage trade, but he'd have served Robb better by telling Bolton the truth of the situation: that Jaime is in chains and enroute to King's Landing, escorted by Cleos Frey and Brienne of Tarth. Edmure's situation and decision reflects back on Catelyn's supposed interest in protecting her daughters, reminding that actions reveal priorities.

Hoster gave Lysa an abortive drug

But the major reveal of the chapter is that Hoster gave Lysa an abortive drug, presumably rather than allow her to marry for love. It seems to fill in a wide variety of blanks to tell a story where Lysa seduced Littlefinger in hopes of becoming pregnant so Hoster would permit, perhaps even force their marriage. But he forced her to wed an old man, instead. The drug ruined her for childbearing, causing multiple miscarriages and the panicked clinging to her one living child that would later incentivize her murder of Lord Arryn so as to wed Littlefinger.

Hoster's feud with the Blackfish about not marrying for duty, and his passion about it decades later, now seems to suggest that Hoster deeply resented having married for duty, himself. He likely set aside an unsuitable woman, Tansy, who he loved. There is a Tansy in Stoney Sept, madam of The Peach, who may have been Hoster's love. That Edmure has been shamed for wenching suggests Hoster was the same in his youth and that many lordlings would choose tavern wenches for brides, making arranged marriages seem a better idea than they are.

Robb is in danger at the Cragg

Hoster drugging Lysa foreshadows Jeyne's drugging by her mother. That Robb's last contact had been to say he was starting back. Now, the worsened state of a wound too minor to have mentioned before suggests Robb's delay is due to his being drugged as well.

Ironies

Denying love matches weakens bloodlines rather than strengthening them, as passionate matches are more likely to produce many strong babies where keeping bloodlines pure weakens them, as demonstrated by House Arryn.

Mnemonic device "Dutiful Judgement" refers to

1. Hoster's poor judgement when he forced an abortion on Lysa. He thought it was his duty to see Lysa in a marriage that would advantage House Tully. In his efforts to see her do her duty to family and bear sons for a high house instead of allowing her to marry for love, as he wishes he could have done, Hoster ensured she'd bear only one, sickly child. Hoster's guilty conscience on his death bed comes from realizing he did the wrong hard thing when he thought he was doing the right hard thing.

2. The judgment on Catelyn made by Ser Desmond Grell and Utherydes Wayne in a manner so generous it was more like providing her a cover story. They would prefer to avoid punishing her, partially for the sake of appearances. Catelyn must appear to be confined, but not in chains. It would almost be enough to only say she'd been spoken to. When she hears what sounds like Ryger returning and would know what's going on, Catelyn thinks "Ser Desmond did not forbid me the roof."-40 The phrase is telling, as Catelyn would stretch any permissions to the ceiling and beyond.

3. The problem of nobles. Brought up with special treatment and expected to assert themselves and rule, children like Catelyn and Edmure and Hoster, too, are dangerously coddled by systems that are then hurt by their hasty, unilateral judgements.

Constructions

Setup for The Red Wedding in the detail Robb is no longer immediately returning to Riverrun but now must heal at the Cragg from a minor wound that has worsened.

Setup for Who Killed Jon Arryn? in the reminder Lysa clings to her one living son after multiple miscarriages.

Setup for Stoneheart in Catelyn's vacillating sense of her rights, especially in her awareness at the end of the chapter of having no right to order Edmure from her presence but doing so anyway.